We all have our own methods of predicting our favorite football teams upcoming regular season record. 7-5? 9-3? 12-0? Personally I predict 9-3 for the Arkansas Razorbacks with losses to Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU.
One can't help but wonder what Arkansas' regular season record and ranking at the time of the Heisman vote will do to Darren's chances of taking home the most coveted individual trophy in all of college sports. Let's take a look at how others have fared over the years with respect to record.
Below you will find the last 20 Heisman trophy winners dating back to 1987.
Heisman Winners and Poll Ranking at the time of the Heisman Vote (in parentheses):
2006 Troy Smith Ohio State QB (1) Lost BCSCG
2005 Reggie Bush Southern California RB (1) Lost BCSCG
2004 Matt Leinart Southern California QB (1) Lost in NC game
2003 Jason White Oklahoma QB (1) Lost in NC game
2002 Carson Palmer Southern California QB (3) Won Orange Bowl
2001 Eric Crouch Nebraska QB (1) Lost in NC game
2000 Chris Weinke Florida State QB (1) Won Nat'l Championship
1999 Ron Dayne Wisconsin RB (5) 9-2 record at vote, B10 runner-up, Won Orange Bowl
1998 Ricky Williams Texas RB (16) 8-3 record at vote, B12S runner-up, Won Cotton Bowl - 1997 Charles Woodson Michigan DB/WR (5) 9-2 record at vote, B10 runner-up, Won Rose Bowl
1996 Danny Wuerffel Florida QB (1) Won Nat'l Championship
1995 Eddie George Ohio State RB (4) 10-1 record at vote, Big10 runner-up, Lost Citrus Bowl
1994 Rashaan Salaam Colorado RB (4) 9-1-1 record at vote, Big12 runner-up, Won Fiesta Bowl
1993 Charlie Ward Florida State QB (1) Won Nat'l Championship
1992 Gino Torretta Miami QB (2) Lost Sugar Bowl (to NC Alabama)
1991 Desmond Howard Michigan WR (1) 10-1-0 record at vote, Lost Rose Bowl (to NC Washington)
1990 Ty Detmer Brigham Young QB (10) 10-2-0 record at vote, Lost Holiday Bowl
1989 Andre Ware Houston QB (Top 15) 8-2 record at vote, offense scored 589 points...5 games over 60 pts (95 v SMU)
1988 Barry Sanders Oklahoma State RB (14) 9-2 record at vote, Won Holiday Bowl - Rushed for 2,628, 37 TD's on 344 attempts
1987 Tim Brown Notre Dame WR (Top 20) 8-3 record at vote, Lost Cotton Bowl
- Of the last 11 Heisman winners, 7 have played in the National Championship game.
- 1998 is the most recent year a Heisman winner's team finished outside of the top 5 (Williams)
For the 5 winners of the 20 listed who played for teams outside of the Top 5 in National Polls, the achievements for their respective winning years should be noted. Each is very impressive and likely a NCAA record setting year in either rushing or passing.
Lower ranked Heisman winner notes:
Williams notes: Ricky Williams gained 2,124 yards with 27 touchdowns on 361 carries (5.9 avg) on his way to securing the Heisman trophy in 1998. Williams set NCAA records with two 300-yard rushing performances - 668 rushing yards & 11 touchdowns during the two-game span. Williams became the NCAA career rushing leader in 1998 with 6,279 yards. He also broke the NCAA Division 1A career rushing touchdowns and career scoring records in 1998 with 73 TD's and 452 points respectively. Both records have since fallen (Dayne/Prentice)
Detmer notes: Ty Detmer won the Heisman trophy in his Jr. season. Detmer passed for 5,188 yards and 41 touchdowns in 12 regular season games, and finished the year with 42 NCAA records. His final career statistics were 1,530 pass attempts; 958 completions, 15,031 passing yards, 121 touchdown passes and 14,665 yards of total offense.
Ware notes: Andre Ware won the Heisman trophy in his Jr. season. Ware threw for 4,699 yards, 46 touchdowns and set 26 NCAA records during his Heisman season. Ware led the Houston Cougars as they scored 95 points against SMU. Lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Sanders notes: In 1988, Sanders rushed for 2,628 and 37 TD's on 344 attempts. Barry set 34 NCAA records during his Heisman campaign.
Brown notes: During his Heisman season, Brown caught 34 passes for 846 yards, returned 34 punts for 401 yards, rushed for 144 yards, and gained 456 yards on 23 kickoff returns. Tim scored 8 touchdowns.
So ... will 8 - 4 or even 9 - 3 be enough for Darren McFadden to win the Heisman this season?
It doesn't look promising.
4 comments:
P., great analysis and brings up some points I hadn't really considered about McFadden's Heisman run. Maybe the inevitability is that the Hogs might actually win the SEC West again and be ranked in the top five.
Keep your eye on how the BYE week factors in to the stretch run. Because it's early we could see a skid right around Auburn/Ole Miss that could set a tone up to the USC/TN/LSU tail end. Hoping for the best.
A lot depends on his performance in nationally televised games.
Like Alabama, if McFadden has 300+ all-purpose yards and three or more touchdowns, it will be hard to knock him off the perch.
But Arkansas has only four, maybe five games that are guaranteed for national broadcast and one, LSU, is so late, I think the ballots have to be sent in before that game is played.
That lack of national exposure will hurt him some.
I think the strongest contenders will be Josh Booty at USC, Ray Rice at Rutgers and the White/Slaton combo at West Virginia.
The ballots are now mostly done via the Internet, so the lateness of the LSU game won't hurt him.
I think a simplistic passing attack, too much reliance on the gimmick Wildcat offense, a lack of a serious PR campaign by the SID office and three losses will hurt his Heisman chances more than anything.
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