Best Five Games of Week 10

PredictionMachine.com recently ran a statistical-probability analysis on the likelihood that the six remaining undefeated teams would stay that way through the end of the regular season. Since we have three of those teams in the pool this week, it might be fun times to take a look at the odds of them not losing during the next month. Here are the probabilities: Alabama (54.7 percent chance of staying unbeaten), Kansas State (27.7 percent chance of staying unbeaten), and Oregon (20.2 percent chance of staying unbeaten). I really would have thought the odds would be better. So you have to ask yourself, when does the loss come for one of these teams -- is it this week?


Oklahoma - Iowa State
11 a.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Oklahoma by 11
* Underdog worth four points

Snow Bowl Reunion
Texas A&M - Mississippi State
11 a.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: Texas A&M by 6
* Underdog worth three points

Oregon - USC
6 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: Oregon by 7
* Underdog worth three points

Oklahoma State - Kansas State
7 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Kansas State by 9
* Underdog worth four points

Alabama - LSU
7 p.m., Saturday, CBS
Line: Alabama by 9
* Underdog worth four points


Trick or Treat!
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Best Five Games of Week 9

Week 9

"Professor Rab" is headed to the "ESPN College GameDay" set on Saturday morning as he continues his travels to see Notre Dame this season. I am making it official right now that I will refund his entry fee if I see a poster with any reference to the Ramon Escobar Trophy, a giant head of Ramon, or a mention of Poolsville. Instead I believe he plans to hold a poster promoting his law firm. Lame. On a related note, if I see haiku master Booty D dressed up as the leprechaun on the sidelines, the pool will be declared over and he will be awarded the prize money. I'll be watching.

For $800 and the Ramon Escobar Trophy, plus other prizes soon to be announced as soon as the 11 remaining delinquents send in their entry fee, select your winners and email them back to me by 5 p.m. Friday.


Texas Tech - Kansas State
2:30 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: Kansas State by 7
* Underdog worth three points

World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
Florida - Georgia
2:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS
Line: Florida by 6
* Underdog worth three points

USC - Arizona
2:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC/ESPN2
Line: USC by 6
* Underdog worth three points

Ohio State - Penn State
4:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: Pick 'em

Notre Dame - Oklahoma
7 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Oklahoma by 10
* Underdog worth four points


Good luck.
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Best Five Games of Week 8

I have learned a lot about TCU from the football pool. First, TCU fans have a bitter hatred for the SWC schools that shut them out of joining the Big 12, especially unworthy Baylor. Second, TCU fans are so used to the 11-win seasons that it only takes one loss to bring out full panic mode. Third, no matter how much they might deny it, the college I almost went to has an inferiority complex with its in-state brothers much like sinking-ship Auburn. Regardless, the Frogs are no longer exiled in an obscure conference and we get the benefit of seeing them play in more big games. Finally, yes, TCU, a new member of the wild Big 12, is in the pool. Probably not for the last time this season if they can beat Auburn's old coach riding high with his new team.


Oregon - Arizona State
8 p.m., Thursday, ESPN
Line: Oregon by 9
* Underdog worth four points

LSU - Texas A&M
11 a.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: LSU by 3

Texas Tech - TCU
2:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC/ESPN2
Line: Texas Tech by 2

South Carolina - Florida
2:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS
Line: Florida by 3

Kansas State - West Virginia
6 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: West Virginia by 3


Good luck.
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Best Five Games of Week 7

Week 7

While the SEC may have the best three teams in the country as usual, the story of this college football season so far is the Big 12, where a case could be made that nine of its 10 teams (sorry, Kansas) are in the top 30. For the second time this season, the Big 12 is representing with three of the five games in the pool. And among those Big 12 schools, the most attention seems to be on the high-scoring new member led by the unorthodox offensive guru. As his destiny inches closer to Fayetteville, I can only hope that his homeland of Iowa pulls out all the stops and offers him that Vratsinas money to come coach the Hawkeyes. Or he loses on Saturday to to the guy Auburn fired after he beat Alabama six straight times. If you are a fan of Big 12 football, this is your week.

AT&T Red River Rivalry
Texas - Oklahoma
11 a.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Oklahoma by 3

Farmageddon
Kansas State - Iowa State
11 a.m., Saturday, FX
Line: Kansas State by 6
* Underdog worth three points

West Virginia - Texas Tech
2:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC/ESPN
Line: West Virginia by 4

Battle for the Legends Trophy
Stanford - Notre Dame
2:30 p.m., Saturday, NBC
Line: Notre Dame by 8
* Underdog worth three points

South Carolina - LSU
7 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: LSU by 2


Good luck.
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Best Five Games of Week 6

Week 6

After beating Alabama six straight years and going undefeated in one of them, Auburn “convinced Tommy Tuberville to take a year off from coaching.” Two years and a bagman drop later, Tuberville’s players combined with a former Mississippi State commit won a national championship for Auburn. But a season-plus removed from glory, things are not looking so good at Auburn. Trees have been poisoned, Vratsinas is back to talking trash about Chizik, and the Tigers are stuck with a Springdale kid running the offense. Meanwhile in Lubbock, Tuberville has brought Texas Tech back to national relevance and put them in much better shape than the Auburn program he “left” currently finds itself. A win Saturday over Oklahoma could put Tuberville back in the spotlight. But Arkansas fans still don’t want him. And that’s the least-interesting storyline from this week. These are the best five games of the season so far and could end up being the best of the year.

 Oklahoma – Texas Tech
2:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC/ESPN2
Line: Oklahoma by 5
* Underdog worth three points

LSU – Florida
2:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS
Line: LSU by 2

West Virginia – Texas
6 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: Texas by 6
* Underdog worth three points

Georgia – South Carolina
6 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: South Carolina by 2

Nebraska – Ohio State
7 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Ohio State by 3

Good luck.
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Best five games of Week 5

When I heard Dana Holgorsen makes $2.3 million a year at West Virginia with a buyout of only $2 million, I immediately took this as bad news for Razorback football. Considering that the University of Arkansas is ready to pay $4 million a year on the next coach if necessary and saved $18 million by firing Petrino (sorry, Robert Shields), Holgorsen jumps out as a flashy and affordable hire who would appease fans with his reputation for putting points on the board. The problem is that he also strikes me as the kind of coach who would run his motorcycle off the road three years later. While Arkansas again didn't warrant making the pool this week, there are four coaches involved in games who are on the potential hire list for the Hogs. I wouldn't really want the guy from Baylor either, but I'll be saying "Hey sic 'em, Bears" on Saturday if it helps prevent Holgorsen from ending up in Fayetteville.


Baylor - West Virginia
11 a.m., Saturday, FX
Line: West Virginia by 12
* Underdog worth four points

Ohio State - Michigan State
2:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Lie: Michigan State by 3

Tennessee - Georgia
2:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS
Line: Georgia by 13
* Underdog worth five points

Texas Tech - Iowa State
6 p.m., Saturday, Fox College Sports Central
Line: Texas Tech by 2

Texas - Oklahoma State
6:50 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: Texas by 2


Smile!
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Best five games of Week 4

Clemson. More than any other team in 10 years of Poolsville, Clemson has confounded participants with the most unpredictable games year after year. It even inspired one pool participant after yet another loss to send me a T-shirt in the mail with the initials DYC and a tiger paw covered with the no symbol. This week, Clemson appears as one of two extremely rare five-point underdogs. For Clemson to pull an upset this time on national-championship contender Florida State would be like a "Kill Bill" coup de grace on everyone who picks against them. Will Clemson and the ACC do it to us again?

Note the Thursday night game this week. For $800 and the Ramon Escobar Trophy, the embodiment of the values of the AAU (no, the Against Aubrey Union), select your winners and email them back to me by 5 p.m. Thursday.


BYU - Boise State
8 p.m., Thursday, ESPN
Line: Boise State by 7
* Underdog worth three points

Battle of the Columbias
Missouri - South Carolina
2:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS
Line: South Carolina by 10
* Underdog worth four points

Michigan - Notre Dame
6:30 p.m., Saturday, NBC
Line: Notre Dame by 6
* Underdog worth three points

Kansas State - Oklahoma
6:30 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: Oklahoma by 14
* Underdog worth five points

Clemson - Florida State
7 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Florida State by 14
* Underdog worth five points


Good luck.
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Five best games of the week

On "ESPN First Take," one of the outstanding programs in sports broadcasting, Skip Bayless called Arkansas' loss to Louisiana-Monroe "the most disastrous loss in college football history." And when you have one of the most disastrous losses in college football history, typically that means you are exiled from the Poolsville Five the following week. So breathe a sigh of relief, Razorback fans, you won't have to sacrifice your record to pick against the Hogs this week. Instead, we pass the Auburn jinx off to Missouri and enjoy the return of some stellar rivalry games that have been missing from the pool in recent years. Plus Notre Dame. There won't be 56 5-0s this week.


The Third Saturday in September
Florida - Tennessee
5 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: Tennessee by 3

Arizona State - Missouri
6 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2
Line: Missouri by 6
* Underdog worth three points

USC - Stanford
6:30 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: USC by 8
* Underdog worth three points

Battle for the Megaphone Trophy
Notre Dame - Michigan State
7 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Michigan State by 5
* Underdog worth three points

The Holy War
BYU - Utah
9 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2
Line: BYU by 4


Good luck.
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Five best games of the week

Week 2

Texas A&M and Missouri make their debuts in the SEC this week. Fans are talking big. Erin Propst went to Missouri and has high hopes. Do the Big 12 expats make their mark, or do they get a rude awakening? They are two of five tough games to predict in Week 2. There won't be 56 5-0s this time.

Auburn - Mississippi State
11 a.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: Mississippi State by 3

Miami - Kansas State
11 a.m., Saturday, FX
Line: Kansas State by 7
* Underdog worth three points

Florida - Texas A&M
2:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: Texas A&M by 1

Nebraska - UCLA
6:30 p.m., Saturday, Fox
Line: Nebraska by 5
* Underdog worth three points

Georgia - Missouri
6:45 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2
Line: Georgia by 3

Good luck.
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This week's games in the college football pool

Week 1

First things first. If you haven't read the recent column by Harry King about this pool, click this link and read it: "Take That, Vivian." It is a pretty great column.

I am sending the games out a little early this week since there is a Thursday night game and to help those going out of town for Labor Day weekend. For the new people in the pool, remember that all games are picked without regard to the line, all games are worth two points unless otherwise noted, and all picks must be submitted at one time. If you are new and entered after the pool primer was emailed, let me know and I will send it to you. Also, remember the new rule for this season that awards an extra point to the winners of overtime games.

South Carolina - Vanderbilt
6 p.m., Thursday, ESPN
Line: South Carolina by 7
* Underdog worth three points

Boise State - Michigan State
7 p.m., Friday, ESPN
Line: Michigan State by 7
* Underdog worth three points

Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game
Clemson - Auburn
6 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Line: Clemson by 3

Cowboys Stadium Classic
Michigan - Alabama
7 p.m., Saturday, ABC
Line: Alabama by 12
* Underdog worth four points

Battle of the Techs
Georgia Tech - Virginia Tech
7 p.m., Monday, ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech by 7
* Underdog worth three points


Good luck.
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