For months, Razorback fans and the fans playing media members have unleashed their predictions for Razorback football on the Internet, radio, and in newspapers. Records of 12-0, 11-1, and trips to the SEC championship game are a common refrain on Drive Times Sports.
But if you sat through the 20-degree weather at the AutoZone Liberty Bowl during that chilling night in Memphis, and if that performance by the football team and coach are as burned in your mind from the experience as mine, it's hard to come to the same conclusion.
I just want someone to tell me what exactly is the difference between the team that needed the much-maligned kicker to pull one out in overtime to beat a Conference USA team and the one that so many have their hopes pinned on as the season begins.
So with a dose of reality, I offer this fail-safe prediction for the coming season: 5-1.
Arkansas has five games on the schedule it will win for sure -- Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas A&M (sorry, Hattan), Vanderbilt (sorry, Tim the Enchanter), and UTEP (sorry, Destiny).
And the Hogs have one game it will lose for sure -- Alabama. The team that barely won the Liberty Bowl isn't going to magically take out the defending national champion that has a returning quarterback and Heisman-winning running back who will be back from injury in time for the Hogs. And even if he isn't, Alabama is always loaded, everywhere. Tide by two touchdowns.
As Michael in Stuttgart would say, you can take the above to the bank. So there's 5-1, and that takes care of six games. What about the rest?
Here is the real schedule that matters this season:
Sept. 18 - Georgia at Athens
Oct. 16 -- Auburn at Auburn
Oct. 23 -- Ole Miss at Fayetteville
Nov. 6 -- South Carolina at Columbia
Nov. 20 -- Mississippi State at Starkville
Nov. 27 -- LSU at Little Rock
What Arkansas manages in those games will determine whether this season is judged as a success and meets the expectations of demanding fans. Theoretically, the Hogs could win all six. Conversely, they could lose all six.
I don't think either of those will happen. If you take these games and split them at 3-3, that would give the Razorbacks an 8-4 season, and honestly, that's not bad at all in the SEC. But if the team can pull it together, play any sort of respectable defense, have the quarterback keep his cool and be a mature leader, and have the coach not continue calling such a stubborn game plan as he did in the Liberty Bowl, 9-3 is actually possible.
By my calculations, the difficulty factor by game (with worst odds for victory listed first) is in this order: Georgia, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Ole Miss. I reserve the right to change that order should Jeremiah Masoli win his appeal.
So while this edition of Razorback football could actually go anywhere between 7-5 and 10-2, and maybe even make a trip to the Cotton Bowl, I'm sticking with a prediction I know for sure -- 5-1.
Take it to the bank.
2 comments:
I haven't seen your blog before. For what it's worth, nice job!
Keep in mind...even you can "rationally" find reasons why Arkansas may win the six games which you see as being games on the fence.
When I came out and predicted a straight-up win for Arkansas against Florida last year, there was another possibility to which I was personally drawn, but for the purpose of writing, it was a cop out.
Twice at Louisville, Coach Petrino was denied undefeated seasons by 3 points. In 2006 it was a 28-25 loss to Rutgers. In 2004 it was a 41-38 loss to Miami, FL.
If you roll back the clock a little further, in 2003 Louisville had 2 3-point losses to South Florida and TCU.
It was the same with Florida last year.
I think there will be days where the ball bounces the other way. It usually does.
If history repeats itself, Arkansas will lose by 3 to Alabama [Rutgers ended 2006 at 11-2 so the loss was to the toughest on their schedule] but go 11-1 through the regular season.
I'm not sure that even fate is that cruel!
Arkansas was only a few points away last year from winning 10 games. And, having been at the Ark-Ga game, that one shouldn't have gotten away either. Akransas will win at least 8 games this year. Take it to the bank. The question is if they can bear the good teams and push their win total to 10 and above. This answer wlll come when they play Ga the third game of the season. I, personally, have them beating Ga and Ala and losing to Auburn and SC. For what it's worth...Tim
http://hogger.wordpress.com
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