From the Bench

Great Expectations for a Team a Kick Away From Losing Liberty Bowl

Robert Shields

So often in life, things are never as bad as you think they are, and things are never as good as you think they are: We often find out the truth separated from our perception is somewhere in the middle.

The perception across the state for the 2010 edition of Razorback football is that it will be great. The most common prediction I’ve heard in the last month is 10-2, which would be a fantastic season to most fans and put this team in a stellar place in the annals of Razorback history.

It only took the Razorbacks 70 years to win at least 10 games in a season, and since that magical year in 1964, they’ve done it only nine times -- three under Broyles, two under Holtz, three under Hatfield, and one under Nutt in that rare season of 2006 when the Hogs ripped off 10 consecutive wins only to have the season go bust with three losses in a row at the end.

The preseason polls have put the Hogs in the top 20 (I’m old school, who cares about the other five), which has not happened in almost two decades, fueling the feeling that success is imminent for this team. I have joined in this shared experience of drinking the Kool-Aid. I also predict the Hogs to go 10-2 in the regular season even though I know that is very optimistic to the point that some may accuse me of expecting to see Kool-Aid Man leading the team as it runs through the A on Saturday night.

What has fed this determined belief that the Hogs will have a great season this year? Those outside of the Hog fairy-tale land in the SEC predict the Hogs at best to finish second in the SEC West. At the SEC media days (which I did not have press credentials to), the Hogs’ receiving corps did not have many names highly listed in an area most Hog fans consider the best in the nation.

The hype for this season is on par with many seasons in recent memory as to its expectations for the team. I am not sure what fans are basing this overly rosy view of the Hogs on every year, but I suspect its foundation comes from the pre-SEC years dating back to Hatfield, Holtz, and Broyles, holders of all those 10-win seasons.

The years when the Hogs did make the SEC championship game, the feat came out of the wild blue -- in 1995 with J.J. Meadors scraping up a catch in Tuscaloosa, in 2002 with the Miracle on Markham, and in 2006 with Darren McFadden lighting up top 10 Auburn on the road. The years great things were expected -- 1999 with Clint Stoerner getting his shoulder rammed into the ground, 2003 going 0 for October, and 2007 losing to Kentucky in Fayetteville -- disappointment (and sometimes a Matt Jones fumble) arrived instead.

But what always brings me back to reality and makes me realize my 10-2 prediction is overly optimistic is the fact the Hogs were a kick away from losing to East Carolina in the Autozone Liberty Bowl. You have to ask yourself, would your expectations be any different today if the poor kicker from East Carolina would have made any of those kicks? The answer for me: yes.

Last year, the team vacillated between good and absolutely horrible -- the good being the loss at Florida and win against Auburn, and the horrible in losses to Ole Miss and Alabama. Last year’s team was the epitome of how the Hogs will not be as good or as bad as we think at times.

The reality is that this year’s team will not be as good or as bad as we think they are at times, either. So don’t despair if the Hogs start 2-2 with losses to Georgia and Alabama because the team will not be as bad as you’re saying they are on the radio. At the same time, if the Hogs start 4-0, they probably will not be as good as you think they are, so hold off on prematurely buying your tickets to the BCS Championship Game.



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